How to detect reversal:a strategy:mrtq13

Well,I have no idea at all about Excel Sheet used in TA.................Why don't you use software to make charts........?? That would be easy,wouldn't it?

My/our style is completely different,I think..........

You are already using all the tools you need. But I think,you need strategy now,not tools. I mean where are you gonna buy and sell at the levels of an indicator? That is what you need to know or "plan"! Let's see this strategy :

We buy if :

1. Candlesticks giving bullish signal :
2. At oversold situation
3. At moving average.
4. At support level.
5. At moderate volume.

Above is a strategy that combines candlestick,oscillators,moving average,volume and support level. There could be a more than 20 different types of strategy like above for a TA to stick to..........

You may find it pretty interesting to see that stocks usually act according to strategy. And almost 80% times,strategy works. And it gives disciplined approach to market. Most of all,when a TA has defined strategy to trade,the TA is not scared or panicked or blind...........

You aim is to find our reversal signal...............If you look at the DSE index itself and our forum postings on Index,you would see that the index has reversed just at the support zone. That is reversal. And I don't think you can easily detect it without software. I have no idea how you are gonna do that with Excel.

I suggest you to use software to make life easier. I know it is difficult to break old habit,and establish a new one. But that is worth it.............

TC!!

I think this forum,"dsetrader.com" itself is enough for answering all the queries you have below.............This forum is self fulfilled............You will get anything you want to stand up and get going. Any new trader's life can change forever from this forum.

All you have to do is to find out stuffs of this forum. Use "search",or post queries................I think there are several great guys here enough to answar anything you need to know.............

It looks like you have remained disconnected from the forum for long,and don't usually browse it. If you did,you would see we have not only uploaded the softwares needed to trade in stock market,we have also showed everything needed to setup the database for trading DSE symbols............

Amibroker is always the best.No deny..............

No,written manual is surely not enough for anyone to get going. Help of other advanced users is needed.

We have already uploaded five years data of DSE here. All you need is to save only one page of dse in text format to regularly update the data. There are softwares in this forum to do the work for you of extracting data............

If you are gonna be a very long term trader,then try weekly data,and weekly chart instead of daily data/chart. See the condition of your holdings every weekend and decide accordinly. Hull's long term investment techinque consists of Weekly chart. A very cool stuff!!

No,I don't have such provisions to train and supply the soft in BD................I am also not able to train anyone at the moment. I am too costly for that. I would take big amounts if I ever train TA to ppl face to face/physically.........LOL............Joking...........

Optimizer started to train on software. I am not sure his present standing. You can contact with him.

TC!!!

I have 25 different strategies better than that of below one...........................The following is nothing. That is just a child play type technique.............

But strategy has huge value.Without strategy,you will be doomed to failure. Because if you know what "may" happen next(from past),you would realise/understand what your standing/action should be when things go wrong.

If you check out(taking a long time) the past of all stocks(not only in BD,but also around the world),you would see an amazing thing. And that is,all stocks in its journey have similiar patterns,patterns that repeat themselves. It is just a matter of time...........

Unfotunately,you can't detect anything!!! Because you have no clue as to how to create and detect patterns.........I won't clarify why I am saying this. But this is vital to learning and using TA............

A discussion on INDEX:12 Nov 8.56 am:mrtq13

Very interesting situation............Right???

So,at last,things seem a little green for us. Or,is it?

SEC has talked about some magical(hypocritical)words last night,the positive effect of which may be found on Index today and tomorrow.........But what is gonna happen after that........???? I wonder,what is gonna happen if institutional traders and market makers don't really bother to enter the market with full swings this time.............That is what is concerning me....!!

Is there any sign of big buyers' buying in any stock yet............?? I need to see them buying....

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Now what about Technical point of view. That is interesting....................

My trading setup is simple. I would trade if the index goes above the yellow line in the chart below. Simple.............And that Yellow line could act as a resistance line soon.That is a very stupid problem. I want to see how DSE acts over there...........Because DSE index may fall down from there.

I am not in hurry. Why? There is a reason. I have found. Not all stocks follow Index movement instantly,though we may see some rise in many stocks,as the Index is about to turn.

What I mean is,have a look at BIFC chart below. Isn't it in charming position? Yeah,it is..........Nice position..........I know it is gonna take at least a couple of days more to rise(If it wants to rise). Several stocks like it will be consolidating at a specific level before they go up. And we will be able to trade them. So,I don't worry. I don't need to worry. There will always be a lot of stocks to trade in the market,if the market is in bullish trend..............

Bullish trend-that is what I am looking for. And if the Index goes above current Yellow line of mine in the chart below,I would consider it bullish trend for short term..............Also,a very important thing for me is that the Average Bull Volume(my third indicator in the DSE chart below)must be higher than Average Bear Volume for me to be confirmed about trend change................

Now another thing we should note also. That is,this new trend may not last long. However,that is a matter of future.............

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Now,why I am waiting for more confirmation. Because around Jun 18th,I had bad experience. I tried to take risk and went anti-trend. I bought at support level of Index taking risk. Things were good at first. I didn't pay attention to trend moves. I didn't care. But Index fell breaking down the support level after a couple of days. And I had to exit with frustration. Later Index remained down for three months. Good for me that I exited early before the downtrend of three months started.

So,this time,I want to go slow.....................But,like I said,in another thread,I feel like entering and buying.........

Anyway,it is never too late. And I don't want to be impulsive. I always know there will be several trades ahead. So,I don't worry and hurry.............20% to 30% profit before election would be enough for me for the time being. And only a couple of quick trade can get me that much. So,why hurry!!!!

Technical indicators:mrtq13

I think :

The first thing about Technical Indicators is,if we believe in them..............
The second thing about Tech Indicators is,if they are suitable for our own personality.................
The third thing about Tech Indicators is ,if we have really understood them and can play with them.............

It looks like you have missed all points needed to chose the indicators for Technical analysis......................

I would have chosen Candlesticks just to assess market sentiment of a specific day. Candlesticks hardly ever show long term trends. It is just a quick exhibitor of a day's sentiment............

I would have chosen Heikin ashi to see longer term trend and to get rid of whipsaws........................This is not the main chart that I would use,just supplementary chart to the main chart............

I would have used Moving averages to find out if the market is in uptrend or downtrend,or about to reverse..........

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But most of all,I would have at first have faith on any indicators. Otherwise,I would have not learnt Technical analysis.Because it is worthless to do go ahead in TA world without beleiving in it. ...........Believing is doing,believing is winning............

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What you have asked is a matter too advanced. You are looking for a way to trade "anti-trend"..........I think only too advanced TAs should try such stuffs,and try to buy at market fall(when bear rules)/or reverse....................Say for example,DSE index is now at a nice position. Now it is easy to take decision for any advanced level of TAs to enter in the market. Because now TAs know if the Index goes below the support line,that is a "sure exit". But if not,then heaven is there....................

Now have a look at the Index below and the positions of the moving averages. If you want to buy,it would be wise you bought when the Index below crosses the Yellow Moving Average..........Because it means the market has just reversed,may be in short term length...........And this is in way would be an "anti-trend" trade if we start to buy now. Because market is in falling mode now,but the Index's position is too good at the moment that it may reverse from here. So,taking risk now makes sense..............



Still,it is not something that anyone should try............Like I said,it is a matter of Advanced Level. But be it "anti-trend" and "trend",nothing is better than "moving averages" to catch trend.When we combine Pivots with MAs,it becomes more stronger................And only when you can understand trend and its moves,you can trade in Bear moves.............

Success in trading is DISCIPLINE,MONEY MANAGEMENT AND TRADING SYSTEM:x-man

Success in trading is DISCIPLINE,MONEY MANAGEMENT AND TRADING SYSTEM-IN DESCENDING ORDER OF IMPORTANCE.

If you want to give weightage to the above three then :

Discipline is 50%
Money Management is 40%
And trading system is 10%

You may not agree now but once in your trading life you will realise it.For the time being lets proceed with the above weightages.From the above weightages, Discipilne and money management is 90% factor for success.

Lets see Discpline first.

What is discipline?

Its nothing but following completely the rules which an individual trader as framed for trading.Now what are the rules of trading ? The rules of money management rules and trading system rules.

Money management (from internet)

A basic investment tenet states there is a direct relationship between risk and return. Trading is no different - the greater the account value risked on a single trade idea, the more volatile the total returns from the trading strategy will be.

A simple strategy is to never risk more than 2% of your trading account on a trade. Most professional money managers will risk a fraction of 1% on a single trade.

"There are many bold traders, but there are very few old, bold traders".

One final quote:

"Winners hold their winning trades, losers hold their losing trades"

MONEY MANAGEMENT IS VITAL TO TRADING SURVIVAL,TRADING SUCCESS,AND TRADING PROFITS.......know them and open the treasures available.Know them not ,and that will be at your peril and doom.

Basically,we use money management rules to restrict how much the market can take away from us. Certain rules that we follow with discipline.Rules that are written and implemented trade after trade,again and again.Rules that help us to stay with the trend and to let profits run as long as possible.Rules that trigger off small losses as compared to the big profits.

Like a warrior,this is the Code that a trader swears by,and adheres to,come what may.

If his stop is triggerred,a trader is out,he does not sit there reasoning that the economy is growing 15%,and the fundamentals of this company is great,and that it is expecting good earnings............If the stop is hit,that's it.He/She's out of that trade.All thought therefore goes into the trade BEFORE the trade.No more thoughts after the trade has been set in motion.

The mind is set into "NOW" mode,no more planning ,no more thinking.When the stop is hit,the trader is out,...........and that's that!

But,there is more to money management other than stops........stops is an aspect of it.But there is more.....

But before getting into it,just noticed that there always is this great amount of blabber about the number of wins a trader has had,etc etc...............So before getting into things,felt that we all should realise one thing.We are in this business to make [b]profits,we are NOT in this business to win......[/b].you can have a Batting Avg of 95% and lose out when you look at profits and losses.You can have a Batting Avg of 30% and come out with stupendous profits by the end of the month.

How is that possible?Well,presume you make an average of 200 taka per trade for 19 trades,and lose 5000 taka in the 20th trade,well,you are sitting pretty with a 95% batting avg and a loss at the end of the month.

Presuming that you have made losses in 14 trades,an average of 400 taka per trade,and we made 10,000 taka in the other 6 trades,well,we are sitting with a profit at the end of the month although we have been wrong 70% of the time.

So,it's not about about the number of wins that one makes,it's all about making profits............and that verily is the heart and core of money management!