Saturday, November 1, 2008

Break out-1:mrtq13












A breakout is the point at which the market price breaks away or moves out of a trading range or pattern. A breakout is simply a resolution in terms of price. The trend usually continues in the direction of the breakout. If previous trend is up,next trend will be up. If previous trend is down,next trend will be down...............The opposite of breakout is breakdown...............

Some points :

• When a price breaks out of a stable, established range or trend, for whatever reason, the odds are high that it will continue to move in the same direction
• The longer the trend, the greater the potential move
• An upward surge in trading activity, or volume, confirms the validity of the breakout.
• When the volume does not show a significant increase on the upside price breakout, the price pattern/breakout should be questioned. It means breakout should be backed up by high volume..............


Entering breakouts can be dividided into two-

A.entering a position when the stock is in congestion before a breakout.
B.entering a position after the breakout occurs.

Now let's see some examples....................

See the image below of ICBislamic.............In the image,you will see there was an uptrend(white arrow). Then,the price stops to go up. The price started to trade in a specific price range. It didn't go up or down. This is called Trading Range(White box). So,we have got the first uptrend and then trading range..................

Now we know that we have got a buisness. And we know that the price could go up from this level breaking up the trading range. So,what do we do now..........? We draw a trendline above the price range like below,and we know it is 430 taka line..................So,we prepare ourself to get into this stock whenever it goes above 430 taka range with high volume...........

See the last trading image. The price actually went above from that trading range/box breaking the line we drew............Now this is called breakout...........

There are several different types of breakout.What I have shown above is one of the famous ones.................After pullback,breakout is the most traded strategy in TA's world. And it is very famous strategy and a reliable one............The great Turtle traders were breakout traders..............

As you can understand,we could apply two different entry strategy after we detect a breakout is coming...................They are :

A.entering a position when the stock is in congestion/trading range before a breakout occurs.
B.entering a position after the breakout occurs.

You will get a lot of breakout and pullback trading in uptrending stocks......After a stock goes up but you can't enter into it at the bottom,then don't worry. Wait for the stock to come to a pullback or breakout trading. It will come someday........... ;)

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Surely,there are ways to find out breakout automatically.............For example,you can use Breakout Trading System,which will indicate when a breakout has happened. You can set Amibroker in such a way,that the software will scan 300 stocks and find out which stocks have gone through breakout today............Turtle traders used to use Donchian Breakout system. They used 20 days highest high breakout system.

But I think you should also try to find out breakout manually at the beginning of your learning. It is because you need to get your eyes used to catch breakouts..................

Actually,it is all about patterns..........Breakout is also a pattern.And you need to know the patterns,you need to get used to the patterns..............After you get used to breakout patterns,you need to define your own patterns,that you like to trade.You need to have strategy about what you would do or don't do after the pattern appears. And then whenever that patterns appear,you just trade.............!

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